If only it were that simple. Yes, the ruling coalition won-narrowly-in the parliamentary elections focused on one issue: independence from Yugoslavia. But the 42 percent of the vote that went to the secessionist groups, which also include ethnic Albanian parties, was hardly adecisive majority.
Although the official results will only be released Tuesday, the unofficial count shows that some 40.6 percent of Montenegrin voters-who had ignored a steady rain to go to the polls in record numbers-voted against secession and for the anti-independence “Together for Yugoslavia” coalition. That number was 10 percent higher than pre-election polls predicted.
SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE
President Milo Djukanovic now has enough support to call a follow-up independence referendum that could signal the death knell for the battered Balkan federation. “This has been a convincing win of political parties that support the restoration of Montenegrin statehood,” Djukanovic told cheering supporters early Monday morning.
However, the deep divisions underscored by Sunday’s poll has raised fears that the potential break-up of Yugoslavia could usher in yet another period of violence in the volatile region.
While current opinion polls indicate that between 55 and 60 percent of Montenegro’s 600,000 people would vote for secession in a referendum, the government is expected to struggle to secure the move with the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority.
“The agony of Yugoslavia continues,” says Peter Palmer, an analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank. “This was the worst possible outcome for everyone involved because the issue has not been resolved one way or the other.”
Internal opponents of independence also argue the process may carry a price tag higher than Djukanovic is willing to recognize. “This could set off the bloodiest Balkan war yet,” predicts Pedrag Drecun, a leading figure in the opposition People’s Party.
‘CONTRARY TO STABILITY’
American and European leaders, as well as current Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica, are equally wary about the outcome of Sunday’s vote. In Brussels, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said his organization was opposed to unilateral steps as “contrary to the stability of the region.”
Their biggest fear: that a successful independence drive in Montenegro could produce a destabilizing domino effect by encouraging separatist movements by Serbs and Croats in Bosnia, as well as Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia.
Kostunica, who stands to lose his job as Yugoslav president if Montenegro leaves the Yugoslav Federation, has warned “any change of borders will push us into to a whirlwind of new armed conflicts, crises and instability.”
President Djukanovic has repeatedly called the risk “exaggerated,” arguing that Kostunica’s comments are based on unfounded fears for the future of sister republic Serbia, which is 10 times the size of Montenegro.
“Montenegro will be Serbia’s most loyal friend,” he told journalists before the vote.
A LOSS OF SOVEREIGNTY
Montenegro has not been independent since 1918, when it gave up its sovereignty to join the new kingdom of Yugoslavia.
In 1943, the communist leader Josip Broz Tito formed the second Yugoslavia made up of republics that included Macedonia, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia. Tito’s heavy-handed rule controlled the various ethnic groups while his savvy use of foreign loans made his region into Eastern Europe’s richest country.
That changed in 1989, when little-known Slobodan Milosevic came to power. Milosevic destroyed the fragile ethnic balance with ultra-nationalist dreams of a “Greater Serbia,” setting off a series of secessionist wars that left only Serbia and Montenegro within the Federation.
Though relations between the two republics have cooled, their economies are heavily intertwined. Serbia needs continued access to Montenegro’s sea coast trading facilities, and Montenegrin businesses rely heavily on Serbia’s 9 million consumers.
The future of Montenegro also has implications for the region as well as the southern Serbian province of Kosovo, home to 2 million ethnic Albanians. Kosovo currently is under a United Nations-led administration after Milosevic surrendered control following the NATO bombing campaign in 1999.
ETHNIC CLEANSING
Ongoing violence still plagues that province. Radical Albanian elements have chased ethnic Serbs, Gypsies and Turks out of Kosovo in a series of murders, disappearances and bombings.
Most importantly, the deal that ended the war left Kosovo inside Yugoslavia with the question of its final status undecided.
“According to the United Nations, it is recognized as part of Yugoslavia,” said the People’s Party’s Drecun. “If Yugoslavia no longer exists, the international community will have a nightmare on its hands.”
Another case in point: neighboring Macedonia, where government forces recently fought a fierce month-long battle against ethnic Albanian guerrillas. The guerrillas said they were fighting to guarantee equal rights for the country’s one-third Albanian minority; Macedonian officials and many observers believed their insurgency was a thinly-veiled drive for secession of the country’s northern regions.
LITTLE FAITH IN RESULTS
While the rebels have temporarily laid down their arms in favor of dialogue between Macedonia’s leading political parties, they have expressed little faith in concrete results.
“We are still here and watching,” guerrilla commander Sokoli said last week. “And in my opinion these talks have failed, but our politicians have to officially recognize that fact.”
To Montenegro’s west a carefully crafted “multi-ethnic” Bosnia also is in danger of falling apart. Nationalist elements of the Croat population there voted to withdraw from government institutions on March 3 and set up their own local institutions.
The self-proclaimed Croatian National Congress gave international administrators until May 15 to open serious dialogue on the issue of Croat equality inside the country-with some leaders openly calling for the creation of their own state.
UNEASY PEACE
In Bosnia, residents fought a bloody three-year civil war between that lasted from 1992 to 1995. The Dayton accords, which ended the war, divided it into two entities: Republika Srpska, almost entirely inhabited by ethnic Serbs, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, a shaky federation of Bosnian Muslims and the Croats.
“We have got to stop the neglect of the will and rights of the Croatian people,” says radical leader Ante Jelavic. “We are at a political crossroads-this is the last moment to open a dialogue.” Balkans secessionists may be welcoming Djukanovic’s continued commitment to fighting for independence. But for most observers, Sunday’s indecisive election results have merely added to the tension and uncertainty in the region.
